TR
Eurasian Academy Of Sciences Social Sciences JournalYl:2021 Say: 39 Alan: ktisat

M. Can YARDIMCI
OKUN YASASININ GEERLLNN SINANMASI: TRKYE RNE
 
ktisadi teoriler incelendiinde isizliin azaltlabilmesinin bir yolu da iktisadi bymenin arttrlmasdr. ktisadi bymenin isizlik ile ilikisinde Arthur M. Okunun 1962 ylnda ortaya att bir yasa bulunmaktadr. Okuna gre iktisadi bymenin isizlii ters ynde bir iliki vardr. Bir baka deyile, iktisadi bymenin artmas isizlik orann azaltmaktadr. 2000li yllardan sonra Trkiye ekonomisine bakldnda iktisadi byme ve isizlik arasnda meydana gelen iliki Okun teorisi ile elimekte olduu grlmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu almann amac Okun yasasnn Trkiye iin geerli olup olmadnn snanmasdr. almada Trkiyede 2001-2020 yllar arasndaki ekonomik byme ile isizlik arasndaki iliki yllk verilerle analiz edilmitir. Kullanlan deikenler byme verisi olarak GSYH ve isizlik orandr. ncelikle serilerin duraan olup olmadnn belirlenebilmesi amacyla birim kk testleri yaplmtr. Daha sonrasnda serileri ebtnleik olup olmadna ilikin analizler yaplarak sonular yorumlanarak deikenler arasnda nedensellik ilikisinin varl Granger nedensellik analizi yntemi ile incelenmitir. Ayn zamanda 2001-2020 dnemi arasnda herhangi bir zaman diliminde yapsal krlmann var olup olmad yapsal krlma testleri ile incelenmitir. Analiz sonularna gre, isizlik orannda meydana gelen %1lik arta karn GSYH 0.75 orannda azal gstermektedir. ki deiken arasnda ters ynde ilikinin var olmas literatrde yer alan teoriler ile uyum salamaktadr. Yaplan nedensellik analizi sonucunda iki deiken arasnda nedenselliin olmad fakat uzun dnemli iliki bulunabileceini grlmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Okun Yasas, Birim Kk, Nedensellik, Yapsal Krlma, Ebtnleme


TESTING THE VALIDITY OF THE OKUNS LAW: EXAMPLE OF TURKEY
 
When economic theories are examined, one of the ways to reduce unemployment is to increase economic growth. The relationship between economic growth and unemployment was first expressed by Arthur M. Okun in 1962. According to Okun, there is an inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate. In other words, an increase in economic growth reduces the unemployment rate. Looking at the Turkish economy after the 2000s, it is seen that the relationship between economic growth and unemployment contradicts Okun's theory. Therefore, the aim of this study is to test whether Okun's law is valid for Turkey. In the study, the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate for the Turkish economy was analyzed using annual data for the 2001-2020 period. The variables used are GDP and unemployment rate as growth data. First of all, unit root tests were carried out in order to determine whether the series are stationary or not. Afterwards, analyzes were made on whether the series were cointegrated, and the results were interpreted, and the existence of a causal relationship between the variables was examined using the Granger causality analysis method. At the same time, whether there is a structural break in any time period between 2001-2020 was examined by structural break tests. According to the results of the analysis, despite the 1% increase in the unemployment rate, the GDP decreased by 0.75. The fact that there is an inverse relationship between the two variables is compatible with the theories in the literature. The causality test results show that there is no causal relationship between the two variables, but a long-term relationship can be found.

Keywords: Okun's Law, Unit Root, Causality, Structural Break, Cointegration


Detay

�ÇER�K